Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.113957 0.133328 0.155715 0.183672 0.217884 0.258690 0.311498
2025-10-19 0.090272 0.114397 0.145144 0.187822 0.246510 0.325864 0.443889
2025-10-26 0.073614 0.099840 0.136212 0.191698 0.276702 0.406398 0.628372
2025-11-02 0.059179 0.085045 0.123641 0.187696 0.296097 0.481739 0.847421
2025-11-09 0.047192 0.071243 0.109467 0.177816 0.304468 0.546362 1.093869
2025-11-16 0.040143 0.063591 0.103260 0.179772 0.335646 0.670648 1.558441
2025-11-23 0.034402 0.056914 0.097236 0.180708 0.366991 0.817373 2.226047
2025-11-30 0.030258 0.052173 0.093642 0.185697 0.411047 1.027812 3.347898
2025-12-07 0.026698 0.047791 0.089765 0.189225 0.455367 1.279884 5.052717
2025-12-14 0.023029 0.042499 0.082882 0.183957 0.475941 1.486218 7.051474
2025-12-21 0.019049 0.035893 0.071834 0.165290 0.450360 1.519815 8.316643
2025-12-28 0.017241 0.033458 0.069494 0.168528 0.495974 1.886057 13.023395
2026-01-04 0.015853 0.031748 0.068650 0.176425 0.566698 2.482653 23.107702
2026-01-11 0.014451 0.029757 0.066711 0.180782 0.630521 3.175259 40.778303
2026-01-18 0.013216 0.027933 0.064801 0.184823 0.699401 4.069502 75.523714
2026-01-25 0.011853 0.025574 0.060971 0.181264 0.734039 4.840759 127.824904
2026-02-01 0.010486 0.022987 0.055987 0.171995 0.735627 5.386203 196.418390
2026-02-08 0.009667 0.021641 0.054217 0.174046 0.802252 6.817130 415.119876
2026-02-15 0.008917 0.020349 0.052332 0.175088 0.867320 8.561642 944.862821
2026-02-22 0.008353 0.019452 0.051445 0.180011 0.965968 11.355196 2862.234255
2026-03-01 0.007812 0.018534 0.050296 0.183509 1.063036 14.898151 10612.205252
2026-03-08 0.007151 0.017186 0.047491 0.178511 1.093190 17.509837 33912.091770
2026-03-15 0.006306 0.015218 0.042301 0.160556 1.001431 16.781777 48363.227414